Conservative Influencer’s Claim That Illegal Immigration Caused a “Crime Wave” Is Not Supported by FBI Data
The Claim
“Illegal immigrants have caused an unprecedented crime wave across American cities, with violent crime skyrocketing because of Biden’s open border.”
— Conservative Media Influencer, 1.2M Followers
ActuFact Verdict
FALSEFBI Uniform Crime Reporting data shows violent crime in the U.S. declined significantly in 2023 and 2024, including in border states and cities with large immigrant populations. No credible dataset supports the claim of an immigration-driven “crime wave.”
Analysis
The claim asserts two things: that violent crime has “skyrocketed” and that illegal immigration is the cause. Both assertions are contradicted by available data.
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program recorded a significant decline in violent crime nationally in both 2023 and 2024. Preliminary 2024 data showed murders dropping by approximately 11.6% year-over-year. This is not a minor fluctuation — it represents one of the largest single-year declines in violent crime in decades. Property crime also declined. These figures come from the FBI’s data collection across thousands of law enforcement agencies nationwide.
The claim specifically implicates border states and cities receiving migrants, but the data contradicts this too. An analysis by the Marshall Project examined crime data in cities that received the largest numbers of migrants during the 2022–2024 period and found no corresponding increase in violent crime. Cities like New York, Chicago, and Denver — which received tens of thousands of asylum seekers — all saw violent crime decline during this period.
The influencer’s video cited several high-profile individual crimes committed by undocumented immigrants. While these crimes are real and serious, they are anecdotal evidence being used to support a statistical claim. Individual cases, no matter how horrific, do not constitute evidence of a systemic “crime wave.” Multiple criminologists have noted this conflation in a joint statement published by the American Society of Criminology.
The claim is false. Violent crime has not skyrocketed — it has dropped significantly. And no credible evidence links immigration patterns to increased crime rates at the population level.
Sources (3)
FBI: Crime in the Nation 2024 Preliminary Statistics
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-crime-in-the-nation-statistics
The Marshall Project: Crime Did Not Increase in Cities That Received the Most Migrants
https://www.themarshallproject.org/2024/08/15/immigration-crime-data-cities
American Society of Criminology: Consensus Statement on Immigration and Crime
https://asc41.org/policy-papers/immigration-and-crime/
Conservative Influencer’s Claim That Illegal Immigration Caused a “Crime Wave” Is Not Supported by FBI Data
The Claim
“Illegal immigrants have caused an unprecedented crime wave across American cities, with violent crime skyrocketing because of Biden’s open border.”
— Conservative Media Influencer, 1.2M Followers
ActuFact Verdict
FALSEFBI Uniform Crime Reporting data shows violent crime in the U.S. declined significantly in 2023 and 2024, including in border states and cities with large immigrant populations. No credible dataset supports the claim of an immigration-driven “crime wave.”
Analysis
The claim asserts two things: that violent crime has “skyrocketed” and that illegal immigration is the cause. Both assertions are contradicted by available data.
The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program recorded a significant decline in violent crime nationally in both 2023 and 2024. Preliminary 2024 data showed murders dropping by approximately 11.6% year-over-year. This is not a minor fluctuation — it represents one of the largest single-year declines in violent crime in decades. Property crime also declined. These figures come from the FBI’s data collection across thousands of law enforcement agencies nationwide.
The claim specifically implicates border states and cities receiving migrants, but the data contradicts this too. An analysis by the Marshall Project examined crime data in cities that received the largest numbers of migrants during the 2022–2024 period and found no corresponding increase in violent crime. Cities like New York, Chicago, and Denver — which received tens of thousands of asylum seekers — all saw violent crime decline during this period.
The influencer’s video cited several high-profile individual crimes committed by undocumented immigrants. While these crimes are real and serious, they are anecdotal evidence being used to support a statistical claim. Individual cases, no matter how horrific, do not constitute evidence of a systemic “crime wave.” Multiple criminologists have noted this conflation in a joint statement published by the American Society of Criminology.
The claim is false. Violent crime has not skyrocketed — it has dropped significantly. And no credible evidence links immigration patterns to increased crime rates at the population level.
Sources (3)
FBI: Crime in the Nation 2024 Preliminary Statistics
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-crime-in-the-nation-statistics
The Marshall Project: Crime Did Not Increase in Cities That Received the Most Migrants
https://www.themarshallproject.org/2024/08/15/immigration-crime-data-cities
American Society of Criminology: Consensus Statement on Immigration and Crime
https://asc41.org/policy-papers/immigration-and-crime/